Three months ago, the St. Louis Cardinals trading Jordan Hicks to the Toronto Blue Jays would have been inconceivable. Not because the Cardinals as sellers was inconceivable–the initial warning signs that the 2023 season would unfold as it has were already in place–but because Jordan Hicks still being on the Cardinals in July seemed impossible. Through his first seven appearances with the Cardinals, Jordan Hicks had an ERA which ballooned to 12.71 with a FIP just under 10 (9.99, to be exact). Even by mid-May, he hadn’t improved too much, and his well-established erratic control seemingly had destined Hicks, yet again, to a novelty act who, if the Cardinals were to take the 2023 season seriously, would need to be sent packing right before he reached free agency.

We were half-right–the Cardinals remained largely abhorrent, but Jordan Hicks suddenly became arguably the most reliable relief pitcher on the Cardinals. Since mid-May, Hicks has an ERA of 2.10 and a FIP of 1.96. He trimmed his walk rate to 2.8 walks per nine while maintaining the flamethrower qualities that have long made him such a source of fascination, striking out four times as many batters as he walked.

Jordan Hicks has long been one of the more interesting Cardinals, if often not one of the better Cardinals. The headline, of course, is his velocity–no pitcher in the sport throws harder or with more consistency than Hicks, and he throws with such a rare power that the naked eye can notice something unusual about his pitching. But the 2015 third-round pick out of Houston’s Cypress Creek High School was oddly hittable–his rookie strikeout rate in 2018 was a fairly nondescript 8.11 K/9 while he walked over five batters per nine, and from a pure production standpoint, his standout statistic was a fairly high ground-ball rate, not the first thing one might expect from a guy who throws a baseball 105 miles per hour.

In 2019, however, Hicks seemed to be turning a significant corner. While most of St. Louis was being distracted by the Blues’ Stanley Cup run, the reliever totaled 14 saves by mid-June and saw his strikeout rate soaring (9.73 K/9–perhaps not as elite as one might dream from his velocity, but a dramatic improvement) and his walk rate collapsing (3.45 BB/9). But then, in unsurprising but unpleasant news, Jordan Hicks got hurt–a torn UCL on June 24 necessitated Tommy John surgery. He missed the 2020 season (partly due to arm trouble, though largely due to his Type 1 diabetes and the dangers of traveling during a worldwide pandemic), and in 2021, he barely pitched due to further injuries, totaling just ten innings. And while health wasn’t a major concern for Jordan Hicks in 2022, effectiveness was–his walk rate once again soared over five and his ERA stood at 4.84 by season’s end.

When it comes to trading a pending free agent, it’s rare to claim that a team is selling high–two months of any player aren’t going to command a superstar return. And the return, first reported by Robert Murray of Fansided and later confirmed by Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network, is not capital-E elite, but it is definitely something. The first name reported, Adam Kloffenstein, is an interesting get because entering 2023, his prospect status seemed to have collapsed, but with a 3.24 ERA and 3.45 FIP in AA as a 22 year-old, he could figure into the Cardinals’ rotation plans for 2024. Sem Robberse is also coming to the Cardinals–FanGraphs ranked him 8th in the Blue Jays’ (admittedly not exactly stacked) system prior to the season and the 21 year-old has a 4.06 ERA in AA this season.

Quick reaction: Could the Cardinals have gotten more than this for Jordan Hicks? Maybe, I don’t know. Would I have ever expected this in April? Absolutely not. Good work on this one, front office. Now I gotta look into the Jordan Montgomery trade that just broke.