Last night, former Los Angeles Angels and now-free agent pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his second MVP award, becoming the first player in Major League Baseball history to win multiple unanimous MVP awards. Any baseball team that is serious about competing any time in the near future would be negligent if they did not reach out to Shohei Ohtani’s representation at Creative Artists Agency (CAA), whose baseball division is led by agent Jeff Berry. So I imagined a phone conversation between St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and CAA’s baseball head Jeff Berry.
JOHN: Hey Jeff, it’s John Mozeliak, St. Louis Cardinals, how’s the off-season going?
JEFF: John! It’s going well, just kind of enjoying the calm before the storm. How are things?
JOHN: They’re good, they’re good…look, you’re a busy man and you aren’t gonna be any less busy any time soon so I won’t beat around the bush. I’m calling about Shohei.
JEFF: Shohei? I mean, we represent Shohei Ohtani but…surely there’s a different Shohei I don’t know about and I’m afraid you have the wrong number…
JOHN: Look, I get it. I know our reputation. I think it’s a little overblown, but I get it.
JEFF: Christ, is Matt Holliday still your biggest free agent signing? Ohtani was, what, 15 when you signed that deal? And even Matt was just being brought back, is it Willson now? Have y’all still not gone nine figures on someone outside the organization?
JOHN: *sighs* That’s true. But also, we haven’t had the chance to sign Shohei Ohtani yet. Look, we gave Paul Goldschmidt a big extension. We took on Nolan Arenado’s money. We’ve spent money when we’ve had the chance at a superstar. Any team that’s serious about winning has to make this call. And last time I checked I work for the Cardinals, not the A’s.
JEFF: *chuckles* Fair enough. I’m just busting your chops, John. I know you’re serious. But honestly, I just don’t think you’re a serious contender.
JOHN: Just give me a few minutes of your time, Jeff. I know you’re a busy man but unless Shohei’s dead set on going to the Bronx, you have enough time to talk about a team with more rings than any of these other contenders.
JEFF: That’s the thing, John, it’s not about the past. You’ve got, what, 11 titles?
JOHN: Eleven, that’s right.
JEFF: And five of them happened on TV. Five of them happened since Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. Five titles in 76 years…that isn’t bad if you do the math on it but it’s not the draw you want it to be. And what was your record again last year? Did you even get to 70 wins?
JOHN: Seventy-one, but that’s not important.
JEFF: Shohei hasn’t been in the playoffs. A team finishes 20 games below .500, that’s absolutely important.
JOHN: This was the worst season we’ve had in decades. And we don’t intend to repeat it.
JEFF: That’s great, John. That’s really…great…and jokes aside, I believe you. Hell, I believe you’re gonna improve next year. But surely you understand why I’m not putting you ahead of the Braves or the Dodgers for 2024.
JOHN: I get that. But I’m also not sure you’re right. The Phillies spend big and nearly made the World Series last year, and you know the Mets are gonna go crazy. Diamondbacks just won a pennant and San Diego and the Giants are gonna spend. The team that just won our division let its manager walk and might be shopping its ace, and that’s after their #2 got hurt and is missing the season.
JEFF: And you’re not worried about the Cubs?
JOHN: Not if we add Shohei Ohtani I’m not.
JEFF: *chuckles* But why St. Louis though? Shohei really prioritized two things when he signed with the Angels initially. #1 was he wanted to play two ways, pitching and hitting. I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess you’re good with that part…
JOHN: I am.
JEFF: And number two is he wanted to play on the West Coast. Closer proximity to home…now when the salaries were the same no matter what, this was a huge factor, and we’re willing to listen to teams in the Eastern or the Central or the Moun…well, Eastern and Central teams are in play. But West Coast is still very appealing to Shohei.
JOHN: I get that. And obviously we can’t change our geography to accommodate Shohei. But ultimately I think when it comes down to it, I think it’s more important for anyone to find an environment where they’re comfortable than focus on time zones.
JEFF: But why St. Louis? Look, no disrespect, I’m sure people from there love it, but…
JOHN: Our greatest player ever was from outside Pittsburgh…he stayed here. Albert Pujols loved it here; I’m sure he’d be willing to talk to Shohei about it. Ozzie’s from LA, we just had these huge retirement tours for guys from Puerto Rico and Georgia. And we’ve had players from Asia who loved it here…Seung-hwan Oh, Kwang-hyun Kim. So Taguchi was a fourth outfielder and he was beloved here. Obviously I’m not saying every Japanese player is the same but there is a track record of people coming here and falling in love.
JEFF: I’m not saying Shohei wouldn’t like St. Louis. But he’s been in LA for six years, why would he want to move a couple thousand miles east instead of staying in the same city?
JOHN: Well, to be fair, he’d be going from Anaheim to Los Angeles. Let’s be serious about that.
JEFF: What difference does it make?
JOHN: I’d say it makes a lot of difference. Look, it’s not about what’s better or what’s worse about cities. Some people love LA. But Shohei’s spent a half-dozen years in the suburbs. Before that, he played way outside the big cities in Japan, he grew up in the north…some people just aren’t big city people. And that’s fine. Look at Giannis in the NBA–people assume he wants to eventually play in LA or New York and he keeps staying in Milwaukee because he’s not a huge city guy. Does Shohei wanna spend his life in LA traffic and still not be as beloved in town as, like, Austin Reaves?
JEFF: Well sure. I get that. But why St. Louis? He’s been to St. Louis a couple times, liked it just fine, but why would he be dying to play there?
JOHN: The culture of the Cardinals makes a ton of sense for Shohei. Stars are beloved but they aren’t hounded by the press or by fans. And he’d get along with the guys around the club in the dugout—Goldy and Nolan are quiet and serious guys. Some people don’t like that, but Shohei’s gotten along great with Mike Trout and with Albert. We know he’s friends with Lars…
JEFF: Oh God, not this Lars Nootbaar thing again. Yes, Shohei likes Lars. Who doesn’t like Lars? It’s not his only friend. He isn’t going to make a half a billion dollar decision because he had fun hanging out with Lars Nootbaar for a few weeks in March.
JOHN: Fair, fair. But we’ve seen the kind of chemistry those guys have. Shohei and Lars were gods in Japan during the World Baseball Classic. Shohei’s already been the best pitchman in the sport playing for a team that doesn’t have a super big fan base, where you drive a little north or south on the I-5 and you’re into enemy territory. Imagine him in a new market and strengthening his marketability in Japan. Think about it: Lars is the good-natured, fun-loving understudy to the stern and serious Ohtani. People identify with that kind of juxtaposition.
JEFF: Okay, okay. It’s really up to Shohei to decide that. I’ll communicate it to him but it’s his call. Let’s talk about the real big issue. I hope you realize Shohei doesn’t come cheap.
JOHN: I suppose…
JEFF: Come on, John, be real. This is gonna be the most you’ve spent on a free agent. Double what you gave Holliday. Triple. Quadruple. Might even have to…is it septuple? Whatever the five one is. Quintuple, that’s it!
JOHN: I get it. I do get it. And I’ll level with you, in terms of straight money to Shohei, we probably can’t match the Dodgers or the Mets, or even God forbid the Cubs. But let me ask you this—is Shohei just trying to cash out his chips now? Let’s put it this way, do you play poker? Or at least know how it works?
JEFF: Sure.
JOHN: Well say I get dealt a pair of kings. Second best starting hand you can have. That’s Ohtani.
JEFF: All due respect, John, but we don’t see Ohtani as anything less than the best starting hand.
JOHN: I’m August I’d have agreed with you. But Shohei isn’t going to pitch this year. And that matters here. Not because he isn’t a tremendously valuable player just as a DH, but he’s less valuable. Look, there’s a reason David Ortiz was never the highest paid player in baseball.
JEFF: Well, *chuckling* there also wasn’t a world where David Ortiz was gonna get healthy and become one of the best pitchers in baseball. If you wanna use St. Louis analogies, David Ortiz’s ceiling was the Arch. Shohei Ohtani’s is…what, the Sears Tower? The Willis Tower? Whatever they call that now.
JOHN: Well sure. But there is some risk. You know that and I know that, and 29 other front offices know that. It doesn’t mean Shohei won’t get paid handsomely. But if you don’t think the Dodgers or whoever reduced their willing price to pay over this injury, you’re fooling yourself.
JEFF: Look, we have the utmost confidence that Shohei Ohtani is going to be a premier starting pitcher in 2025. And frankly, so do a hell of a lot of other teams, so if you aren’t going to understand what is ultimately going to close this deal, I don’t want to waste either your time or mine.
*several seconds of silence pass*
JOHN: You believe Shohei will be back and as good as ever in 2025. I might not go that far, just because of how incredible he’s been the last three years, but in terms of he’s the most valuable player in baseball, you’re probably right. And if you believe in Shohei as much as you say you believe in him, I’m going to offer you something other teams aren’t going to give you.
JEFF: Pizza on crackers?
JOHN: I’m going to give Shohei Ohtani a chance to become the top free agent in 2024 and 2025 if he wants the chance.
JEFF: So you’re saying opt-outs? Look, I get it for Carlos Correa or Trevor Bauer, but this is Shohei Ohtani we’re talking about. He’s already the best player in baseball.
JOHN: This isn’t the NBA, Jeff. There isn’t a max salary. There’s no limit on what he can make. Now from what I’ve heard, before his injury, he was estimated around $600 million. Post-injury, we’re talking closer to $500 million. I’m saying 450. That’s more than Mike Trout got. It’s more than Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Machado…
JEFF: All due respect to those guys, but none of those guys pitch.
JOHN: And Ohtani might not either. And we’re willing to accept that possibility. Which is why we want to go ten years, evenly spread out. $45 million may not sound like much in 2030s money but he’s also gonna be closing in on 40. It probably sounds pretty good for a year as a DH. And if Shohei is one of the best hitters in baseball again and his pitching rehab goes according to plan, he can opt out. Teams won’t have to worry about his injury or draft pick compensation; it’ll be like if Ohtani had gotten flipped at the deadline and stayed healthy.
JEFF: And what if, hypothetically, far fetched as I think it is, Shohei isn’t an effective pitcher? *starts half-hearted Vito Corleone impression* What have I done to deserve such generosity?
JOHN: Then we have a decade of a premium offensive weapon. And frankly, we believe in Shohei Ohtani’s floor. There’s worse things than having to build around Shohei Ohtani’s bat.
JEFF: Uh huh.
JOHN: The last five seasons we had with fans, we had a huge selling point for coming out to the games. 2018 Marcell Ozuna, Goldy in ’19, Nolan in 2021, the return of Albert in ’22, Waino’s retirement tour in 2023. I truly believe Shohei would love it here and the fans would love him back right. Nolan Arenado just left money on the table a year ago because he didn’t want to risk winding up somewhere else in free agency.
JEFF: Do you really expect a fully operational Shohei Ohtani to not wanna opt out?
JOHN: Look, we can cross that bridge when we get there. Maybe he does opt out. That’s his right. And it’ll be our right to offer him a raise if and when he proves himself to be that guy again. But in the meantime, he’ll get that chance to prove himself in front of a rare place where he won’t be completely stressed out and also has a chance to make it to October Baseball.
*several moments of silence*
JOHN: So, what do you think?