There is a relatively early episode of Family Guy (based on the fact that I have seen and remember it) where the Griffin family is offered one of two gifts (I think for sitting through a timeshare presentation? I promise I’m not trying to seem too cool for Family Guy, a show that had plenty of entertaining episodes and about which I am not above, but it really doesn’t seem worth my energy to actually research this)–a free boat or a “mystery prize”, the latter of which is a wrapped box that you could easily pick up with your hands. Lois, the sensible one, is adamant that they should take the boat, but Peter is enticed by the possibility of the mystery prize. It could even, as Peter notes, be something as great and exciting as a boat!

I think about this scene quite a bit with regards to Major League Baseball prospects. I am not anti-prospects, nor am I anti-getting excited about prospects, but baseball consumers inevitably overrate prospects, particularly when they play for their favorite team. And I would argue that while there is a tendency to dream big, the bigger issue comes from overrating the guys who are somewhere between projected superstars and organizational depth–something gets lost in translation and the #50 ranked prospect in baseball is seen as the future 50th best player in baseball, when the realities of player turnover make such an outcome extremely optimistic.

Victor Scott II, whom I will refer to as Victor Scott from this point forward in this post and about whom I am undecided on how he will eventually be referred, was the St. Louis Cardinals’ fifth-round draft pick in 2022 and is presently ranked by Baseball America as the sport’s #83 prospect and by Baseball Prospectus as #64. As the former #157 pick in the draft, it’s hard to deny that Scott’s prospect status has materially improved; after beginning last season in high-A, he made a mid-season move to the AA Springfield Cardinals and recently participated in the Arizona Fall League, with and against some of the best prospects in the sport. His numbers at the plate were decent enough, with a .794 OPS across the two levels, but what has really stood out is his speed. On 188 occasions, Scott reached first base via single, walk, or hit-by-pitch, and he stole 94 bases; this doesn’t work out precisely to a 50% steal rate (steals of third base, notably, do happen from time to time), but this makes Victor Scott among the more aggressive thieves in the sport. This rate has conjured memories of Vince Coleman, a surprised addition to the Opening Day roster in 1985 who remained on the roster all season after his incredible base-thievery made him impossible to relegate.

It’s not as though Victor Scott’s prospect bona fides are without precedent. In 2020 and 2021, the Cardinals had an outfield prospect that Baseball America twice ranked in their top ten and that Baseball Prospectus twice ranked in their top twenty. In his official rookie season of 2021, he was a Rookie of the Year finalist. The next season, although his hitting fell off somewhat, he was still a league average-ish bat while proving previously unforeseen competence while playing center field. And 255 MLB plate appearances later, Dylan Carlson is regarded not only as a prospect bust, but as utterly unqualified for a job in Major League Baseball.

Dylan Carlson has typically been viewed in absolutes–he was a future middle-of-the-order bat for the Cardinals, and once that phase of his hype had passed, he was damaged goods. It’s not as though the actions that the Cardinals have taken would suggest great faith in Dylan Carlson–in 2023, they started to convert Gold Glove infielder Tommy Edman into a center fielder as a means to remove Carlson from the everyday lineup in favor of Masyn Winn, who was a demonstrably inferior hitter to Carlson despite the latter having a wildly disappointing 2023. Lars Nootbaar, himself typically regarded as a corner outfielder, began playing some innings in center field. And it took both of these players to be injured for Dylan Carlson to seem likely to start the season as the everyday center fielder for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Carlson has been so-so offensively for the Cardinals in Spring Training, to the extent that any statistical trends extrapolated from 39 relatively meaningless plate appearances can be gleaned. So-so statistics are not going to convert those who have labeled Dylan Carlson a disappointment, but it also reaches a certain baseline that not every player can. His 92 wRC+ would also clear a mark of 84 from last season that was almost certainly unsustainably low–in 2023, Carlson walked more and struck out less than he previously had in any big-league season, and although his drop in overall offensive production was certainly at least partially the result of a real decline in power, his .256 batting average on balls in play would suggest that dip in power alone wasn’t the reason for his overall decline.

It is difficult to separate any emotions we have about Dylan Carlson from the current version of him–that he didn’t hit the ground running in the Pujolsian fashion that we have learned to assume despite the fact that it’s really only happened that one time for the Cardinals, that a fan favorite like Harrison Bader was sent away in part to secure a spot for Carlson in center field, that the Cardinals were rumored to have rejected Juan Soto trade proposals that included Dylan Carlson (which is probably true in the literal sense, but I cannot reiterate more emphatically that no serious reporter has ever claimed that Carlson-for-Soto straight-up was ever on the table). But at this point, the ask of Dylan Carlson is the lowest it has ever been–the ask is for Dylan Carlson, essentially, to be a fifth outfielder. The ask, in this very specific case, is for Dylan Carlson, in late March 2024, to be a better option as a Major League center fielder than Victor Scott.

Victor Scott is seen as new and exciting, although the gap in age between he and Carlson is probably smaller than you think it is (Carlson is less than 2 years and 4 months Scott’s senior). But more important than age is that Scott has never disappointed us–this is a player who has only spent half a season in AA, whereas we have seen Dylan Carlson play in three disappointingly brief playoff runs and the worst Cardinals season that most of us can remember. 2024 projections are not fool-proof by any means, but at the plate, the two aren’t even particularly close–ZiPS still likes Carlson as a league average-ish batter (105 wRC+) and views Scott, absent a single plate appearance at even AAA, at an anemic 78. A deeper look at his 2023 production suggests why that might be–just nine home runs in 618 plate appearances and no particular nose for drawing walks. Victor Scott is well-regarded defensively, and Dan Szymborski himself would be the first to acknowledge the shortcomings of his projection system to project a true rookie’s defense, but it would take truly elite defensive production to justify playing him over Carlson–of the 128 qualified seasons in MLB history in which a player posted a 78 wRC+, just 19 produced more fWAR than Carlson’s 2024 projection, and all were infielders.

There is also the matter of Victor Scott’s MLB status, less as a consideration of Scott’s service time accruals if he were on the big-league roster and more as, if he were demoted this season (which, once players get healthy, barring Scott being absolutely sensational beyond any reasonable projection, he would be), a consideration of burning one of Scott’s option years. It was one thing for the Cardinals to use one of Jordan Walker’s options after he made the big-league roster out of Spring Training in 2023–he was a super-prospect who is unlikely to need more than his two remaining option years. Scott is closer in prospect pedigree to Masyn Winn, who was promoted in August 2023 and, because he was never optioned to the minors once he was on the expanded 40-man roster, still has three option years remaining. This isn’t insignificant for a player with good-not-elite prospect status–even if you believe Victor Scott is a Rookie of the Year candidate-level prospect, the Cardinals have taken advantage of these options with Rookie of the Year finalists such as Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, and a young outfielder named Dylan Carlson.

None of this is intended as a knock on Victor Scott, who is a very exciting prospect whom I am cautiously optimistic will be a big part of the Cardinals’ future. But rather than exposing him to the highest level of competition imaginable when he is still a raw prospect is short-sighted. This doesn’t mean Scott shouldn’t make the roster at all in 2024–if outfield injuries continue and Scott demonstrates himself as a promising hitter in Memphis, it’s not unreasonable to think Scott could have a chance to eventually contribute to the big-league club. But the Cardinals likely will, and should, approach their intriguing young prospect with patience.