How to “win” a trade

That advanced baseball statistical research allows us to quantify just about anything is both the greatest strength of the sabermetric movement and the aspect of it which gives us the falsest sense of security. Statistics are objective--even if they are complicated to a point of impenetrability to the casual fan, like WAR or wRC+ or…

Just how done are the 2023 Cardinals?

Before the 2023 season, FanGraphs projected that the St. Louis Cardinals would win the National League Central. And by and large, their projection systems still believe the Cardinals to be a pretty good team, fundamentally. A cursory glance at their current rest-of-season odds show that they believe the Cardinals are a 86.34 win team over…

When is the time to sell?

For the first time in my time as a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals, I am writing this sentence: the St. Louis Cardinals, over a month into the season, have the worst record in the National League. The Cardinals currently sit eleven games under .500, playing the season at a crisp 52 win pace.…