Every year, I come up with a new construct for how to preview baseball at large, and this is my one for this year. The thing in the subject. Simple enough, I think.

Note: For the purposes of this exercise, I’m determining how a team is rated by their current odds to win the division–I’m not gonna do the whole “I was told Steph Curry wasn’t a good shooter” thing about, like, the Atlanta Braves. I am using these odds for recreational purposes, I say not as somebody who objects to anyone placing these bets in a sportsbook but as somebody who would never place such a bet himself. Any amount small enough I’d be comfortable betting it isn’t worth monitoring for six months; any amount large enough to be worth monitoring is too much to spend on a single wager that is ultimately out of my control.

AL East

Overrated: Baltimore Orioles–At +185 to win the division, this isn’t an egregious example, but based on how rapidly they improved last season, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some regression to the mean. The addition of Corbin Burnes is obviously a big help, but this still isn’t an especially deep starting rotation and given how many young position players they have, it’s not unreasonable to expect at least one or two of them to be at least moderately figured out.

Underrated: Toronto Blue Jays–The Blue Jays are third in betting odds, at +400, and I think they’d be my pick to win the division. This is a team that won 89 games last season while having aggressively disappointing seasons from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and especially Alek Manoah, and although the losses of Matt Chapman and (presumably) Brandon Belt do hurt, they got decent replacements lined up and have retained most of the fun roster that had people calling them legitimate World Series contenders just a year or two ago.

AL West

Overrated: Los Angeles Angels–They are by no means division favorites, easily in (the correct position of) fourth in the division at +4500. But their odds should be closer to the +25000 of the Oakland Athletics because this team is going to be a mess. They won just 73 games last season when they, notably, employed Shohei Ohtani, and while I’m less concerned about their other losses, their biggest offseason acquisition by a mile is Robert Stephenson, who is quite a bit less good than Shohei Ohtani. The only way the Angels could be remotely competent is a bounce-back season from Mike Trout, which I’m not counting out, but there’s a lot of room between where they are and where a serious playoff contender would be.

Underrated: Texas Rangers–It’s weird to say that a team that just won the World Series is underrated, but I think they have a reasonable chance of doing something they failed to do last season, which is win the American League West. They can place hope in eventually getting something from Jacob deGrom, but in the meantime the additions of Michael Lorenzen and Tyler Mahle should raise the floor. Meanwhile, offensively, a full season of Evan Carter and the inevitability of Wyatt Langford should give them an explosive offense.

AL Central

Overrated: Cleveland Guardians–The Cleveland Guardians will draft first overall in this year’s draft, which doesn’t inherently mean they were awful last season (there is a lottery now, after all), but they did finish 76-86 with one of if not the most respected active managers in the sport, Terry Francona, at the helm. For this year, they made zero moves of consequence and are managed by Stephen Vogt, who is a mystery. I can’t think of a reason to rank them anywhere but fourth in the division (let’s be clear–the Chicago White Sox are levels of awful Cleveland dare not pretend on their worst day). And yet, at +350, they are tied with a Detroit Tigers team that at the very least has some promise for the #2 favorites in this division.

Underrated: Kansas City Royals–A thing I find endearing about the Kansas City Royals is that they always think they are contenders. Most of the time they are extremely wrong, but it does at least create some reason to watch them. And they spent the better part of their offseason acquiring players for the short term–Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe among them. The Royals finished eight games under their Pythagorean record last season and I don’t expect that to happen again. They are still division long-shots but I think they’re closer to the top of the division than the bottom.

NL East

Overrated: Philadelphia Phillies–Look, I don’t know why the same blogosphere that decided that the St. Louis Cardinals, representatives of a majority-minority city with a long history of non-white players being not only successful but absolutely beloved, were avatars of far-right extremism while the the least vaccinated team in baseball were avatars of everything good and right with the world because they have beards, but they did, and it’s reflected in how much the Phillies have been talked up. They’re a good team, there is a completely undeserved developing notion that they are not FAR behind the Atlanta Braves. In their last three seasons, they won 82, 87, and 90 games–good but not superb seasons. And while the losses of Rhys Hoskins and Michael Lorenzen may not be huge, they are probably bigger subtractions than any of their additions, whose biggest name is probably a utility-ish player in Whit Merrifield. I think they still probably belong at #2 in the division, but +310 odds suggests belief that the Phillies actually could win the division, which I highly doubt.

Underrated: New York Mets–I know that it is illegal to speak positively of the favorite sports team of every neurotic sportswriter in the world (if you can’t tell, I don’t enjoy the NL East very much–and I hate the Braves more than any of them!), but this is a team that won 101 games two years ago and most of those players are still on the team. Simply saying “LolMets” three times into a mirror does not offset the fact that this is a team with a massive budget and a bunch of good player still. At +1200, they are slipping through the cracks.

NL West

Overrated: Los Angeles Dodgers–Let me be clear, the Los Angeles Dodgers are overrated in the same way that the Beatles are overrated, in that the Beatles did not invent music or rock and roll and are merely one of the greatest artists in the history of recorded music. They are clearly one of the two best teams in baseball. But the odds reflect them as a foregone conclusion to win the NL West, when I would argue their odds are lower than the odds of the Braves to win the East. Uncomfortable as I may feel discussing odds regarding Shohei Ohtani right now, he is ranked a preposterously high third in MVP odds in a season where he will almost certainly only be a designated hitter, and it seems a huge part of the hype surrounding the Dodgers involved Ohtani even though the upgrade he provides (as a DH-only) over J.D. Martinez isn’t nearly as much as you might think. To be clear, I think the Dodgers are awesome, but I refuse to classify a team whose outfield is Teoscar Hernández, James Outman, and Jason Heyward as prohibitive favorites to the extent that -450 to win the division is.

Underrated: San Diego Padres–Last year, a lot of people were picking the San Diego Padres as sneaky favorites to supplant the Dodgers as kings of the NL West, so many that they eventually became slight favorites. I never bought it. But the way the Padres fell off last year was so illogical that I am happy to buy low on the Padres today. Yes, they lost Juan Soto and Blake Snell, but the additions of Dylan Cease and Michael King (the latter acquired in the Soto trade) should bolster their starting rotation nicely, and while I think this team is slightly worse on paper than they were in 2023 (even with Fernando Tatís Jr. not scheduled to serve 20 games of a suspension), they were also better than their 82 wins last season. They are ranked fourth in NL West odds (which, to be fair, the gap between four and five is massive) but I think they have by far the highest upside to upset the Dodgers and will be in a good position to take the National League’s first Wild Card spot.

NL Central

Overrated: Cincinnati Reds–I’m glad the Reds are trying. And I’m glad they have some fun players on their roster. But at +350, within striking distance of the division favorites and ahead of the defending division winners, I don’t buy it. Unlike the 82-win Padres, who finished ten games below their Pythagorean record, the Reds won 82 and finished five games above their expected record. And as much hype as Elly De La Cruz got for his hot start last season, fewer noted that he finished the season with below-average offensive numbers, with an 89 OPS+ in 427 plate appearances. Their best position player last season, Matt McLain, is expected to miss most of this season. Why am I supposed to believe Joey Votto was holding them back this much?

Underrated: Milwaukee Brewers–The headline here is obvious, which is that the Brewers lost by far their two best starting pitchers, Corbin Burnes (via trade) and Brandon Woodruff (via injury). But you know what happens if you subtract the 5.9 combined Wins Above Replacement that those players accumulated from Milwaukee’s 2023 record? They still win the NL Central, just by three games instead of nine. The Brewers re-signed Wade Miley and acquired Rhys Hoskins, displaced in Philadelphia by Bryce Harper but still a very good hitter, to give the Brewers some needed thump in the middle of their order. Not to mention they will have Jackson Chourio, a super-prospect who instantly increases this team’s ceiling. Most oddsmakers have the Cubs and Cardinals as division favorites, and I don’t think that’s unfair, but the Brewers aren’t as far off as fans of those teams might want to believe. At +750, their odds are closer to those of the third-place Reds than the fifth-place Pirates, which feels like a complete miss from oddsmakers.